Good morning and welcome to The Smith Report.
I've decided to begin writing this blog in order to share my often contrarian views with family and friends regarding issues primarily related to investment finance. I believe we are faced with a market environment that will reward those who are able to carefully navigate the tail events that I anticipate will dictate the market's direction for several years to come. I do not believe or even anticipate that my predictions will all prove correct. My hope and my intention is to make available my thoughts on a rolling basis so as to provide context for those interested in some of my more dynamic hypotheses.
As the challenges we face become increasingly interconnected and global in nature, the challenge we face as investors is to try to handicapp the possible outcomes of political and economic developments and apply these probabilities to our daily work of individual security selection and portfolio construction. The effect this will have on my comminques will be a need to frequently opine on political discourse and world events. I expect that many readers will find that my views differ from their own. This is a welcome result. Feel free to email me at alsmithnordwand@gmail.com if you'd like to challenge my conclusions or provide a different take.
I will also frequently discuss individual positions. Naturally the securities I am most interested in discussing are the ones in which I have a position. So, I will be 'talking my own book.' I will try to be vigilant in providing the necessary disclosures when this is the case. I also want to make it clear that I will never make an individual position recommendation in The Smith Report, implied or otherwise. A discussion of an individual security is simply a discussion and nothing more.
Many thanks for your interest and beware the 'tails!'
Al Smith
