Monday, October 11, 2010

Market Trading on a Policy Expectation Which No One Understands

Seeking Alpha contributor, Jeff Miller, whose 'Weighing the Week Ahead' piece I enjoy reading for its typically unique outlook on the coming weeks' events, wrote the following this morning:

"Before anyone is allowed to pontificate about the merits of quantitative easing, the pundit would have to demonstrate a minimal level of knowledge. Let us try the following:

In three sentences, please explan what quantitative is, how it is implemented, and what it is intended to accomplish. (slogans like "printing money" do not constitute an acceptable answer.)

This would probably eliminate nearly everyone, and confront CNBC with a major problem. How would they do any interviews if they could not ask people questions about things where they had no knowledge?

Meanwhile, the market continues to trade on expectations for Fed action, a policy which hardly anyone understands."

And this guy is bullish...?

He cites Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jeffries, who recently mimicked David Tepper's comments, as most thoughtfully expressing his thesis. Art:

"The concept of a double-dip recession has been replaced with slow and steady improvement, and even if we don't get it, we have a Federal Reserve that's ready to step in and support the rally,"

Mr. Miller's reponse, "For me, this was hardly fresh news, but it is nice to see people joining in."[Emphasis Mine]

Does anyone else see this bubble for what it is? Has governing one's actions with a thoughtful prudence become a relic, a dinosaur? Perhaps the process of blowing and popping bubbles is something we've gotten comfortable with. At least it is dramatic, I suppose...

No comments:

Post a Comment